NFL Hack: QBs on Rookie Contracts

This may seem obvious to some, but in the NFL if you pay your most important player a lot less than the league average player gets at that position it will help other areas a lot. Wherever you stand on the NFL rookie wage scale, I am mostly a proponent, it is now clear it creates a byproduct in which some really good quarterbacks get paid nowhere near enough. Eventually this evens out a bit because it has allowed the best quarterbacks to make ridiculous amounts of money after their rookie contract expires. This byproduct creates the biggest advantage in professional football and possibly the biggest advantage in professional sports right now.

For reference, three of the four teams that made it to conference championship weekend had quarterbacks on rookie contracts.  The fourth team had a quarterback that was willing to take a massive pay cut. The result: four rosters that were absolutely stacked with talent.

Let’s take the team that won it all, the Philadelphia Eagles, as a case study. Last season Carson Wentz had just above a six-million-dollar cap hit. Now let’s suppose that after his rookie contract expires he signs somewhere in the range of $26 million cap hit average over the life of the deal. Now the Eagles need to start eliminating some of that money from the rest of their roster and the first to go for next season would likely be someone $7.6 million backup quarterback Nick Foles. We have seen this story before with the 2013 Seattle Seahawks. It is not impossible, but the only way for the Eagles or 2013 Seahawks to have maintained or continue maintaining a roster this good is by basically drafting perfectly. If history is any indication, that is actually impossible to do. This does not mean the Eagles are going to be terrible next year (the 2014 Seahawks nearly repeated and I expect the Eagles to be around that). What it does mean, is that in today’s NFL, and under this CBA, there will not dynasties. Some might say that is good for the sport; I personally don’t have much of an opinion on that debate.

There is much more of a deep dive on this topic that I am not smart enough nor qualified enough to go into. I can, however, generate some hot-takes for next NFL season based on this. Teams with rookie-contracted starting quarterbacks that either are good players, or we don’t know enough about yet heading into next season are: Cowboys, Eagles, Rams, Bears, Titans, Chiefs, and Texans. Now I am not saying these will be the teams that make it to the end because I don’t really even believe that. That said, if a few of those teams surprise people (save the Eagles since they can’t really surprise people next year) and make a deep run than I will most definitely take credit for it an say that I called it.

Super Bowl Preview

It’s been a while since I put something up so I thought I would do something that I hate, and give you my hastily-made Super Bowl takes in anticipation of the game tomorrow. I am going to lead with my prediction which is that I think the Eagles will win and I’ll explain why in a bit. I will not put a score on it though because I just think there are too many variables and that is a dumb thing that people do anyway.

MVP: I am starting with the MVP because it gets into a lot of why I think the Eagles will win. I think Brandon Graham will win the MVP this weekend. The reason being, if you look back at those Giants teams that beat the Patriots they did it rushing four and getting pressure off of the edge. If it is not Graham, I think Vinny Curry will also wreak havoc in this game. The front seven has been the strength of the Eagles all season, it is why they are in this game, and I really think they can dominate this game.

X-Factor: Nigel Bradham is somehow one of the most underrated players in the NFL. The reason I say somehow is because every time I watch the Eagles he jumps of the screen to me. He helps that defense so much and makes it easier for everyone around him to do a better job. He will have maybe the most important job in this game because he will have to cover Dion Lewis and James White a lot out of the backfield. Because of the threat of the Eagles defensive line, I expect the Patriots will try to go after Bradham a lot with quick passes to the backs. If he can minimize their impact, he could really swing this game in the Eagles favor.

Strength vs. Weakness: The reason I am so confident in the Eagles for this game is that they can dominate up front against the Patriots weakness, their defensive line. The Eagles offensive line has been dominant this year and they are going against a really weak front for the Patriots. While football has a lot of complexities, the one simple thing about it is that dominating the line of scrimmage is the surest way to win. The Eagles have the decisive advantage on both lines and I think that will carry them.

Conclusion: My slant in this post obviously shows that I feel strongly about the Eagles winning this game. The Patriots do still have Brady and Belichick and that makes it so they can never be counted out. Ultimately, I am not worried about Nick Foles for the Eagles if he gets time which he should. The Patriots front seven has been terrible at generating pressure and Foles should be able to play a decent game with a clean pocket. I think the Eagles defense can force the Patriots into some mistakes and give Foles a short field to work with which will give them a huge advantage. Another thing playing to the Eagles benefit with their defensive line is that they are always in an advantageous position because of how good it is. If they get the lead, they can come after Brady and it will be very difficult for New England to comeback like they did last year. If they fall behind, the Eagles can create turnovers and be right back in it in an instant.